Threat of severe storms, hail, high winds looms this weekend

It’s shaping up to be a grim weekend in Central Texas weather: Severe thunderstorms accompanied by hail, damaging winds and maybe even an isolated tornado are possible.

Chances of severe weather will begin increasing early Friday evening as unstable air moves in from the west while a cold front moves in from the north, according to Eric Platt, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service. Platt said the systems should bring with them a chance for strong winds, sizable hail and possible flooding.

“We cannot completely rule out the chance for tornadoes either,” Platt said.

The National Weather Service forecast Friday calls for an 80% chance of rain all day and into the night. Temperatures will reach highs near 80 degrees before the cold front pushes temperatures back into the upper 50s, according to meteorologists.

Thunderstorm wind gusts could reach up to 70 mph, the forecast says. The expected hail could be as large as 2 inches in diameter, according to the weather service.

“Rain chances won’t let up Friday night into Sunday, so it’s looking like a wet weekend is in store for the area,” Platt said.

Areas in Travis County could see up to 1 1/2 inches of rain on Friday alone, according to Platt.

"You tack on another half-inch on Saturday and quarter of an inch Sunday, we could see 2- to 3-inch rain amounts over the weekend,“ he said.

The rainfall over the weekend, combined with persistent rain chances next week, could mean up to 4 inches across Travis County by Wednesday, according to Platt.

Because the rain will stretch out over several days, it’s unclear if major flooding will be an issue, said Bob Rose, meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority. As the manager of the water supplies and flood-controlling dams on the Highland Lakes, the LCRA pays special attention to the weather and rainfall.

“Our greatest concern is Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning,” Rose said. “It could lead to some of the creeks and streams going up rapidly. We might see some flooding especially in the (Austin) metro area where there are more roads and concrete.”

Saturday morning and afternoon will continue to have an 80% chance of rain before chances gradually reduce to 40% by the evening. Temperature highs will reach near 66 degrees but overnight lows should stay above 61 degrees, according to the weather service forecast.

A 60% chance of rain Sunday means moisture is likely to continue, even as temperatures climb to a high near 74 degrees, the forecast said.

Rain chances will persist Monday and Tuesday, before diminishing to 20% come Wednesday, according to Platt.

As recently as March 31, data from the U.S. Drought Monitor — a project produced by a team of academic and government researchers to track drought conditions across the country — reported almost all Central Texas counties were free of drought.

In September of last year, about 71.84% of the state was under drought, according to the drought monitor. Extreme drought affected about 9.4% of Texas by October, including most of Hays and Travis counties, the drought monitor said.

The drought conditions continued into the fall and winter, but progressively decreased before ending completely about two weeks ago, according to Rose.

“It’s been almost two weeks since we’ve had heavy rain, so the ground can absorb some of this rain,” Rose said. “We do live in Flash Flood Alley’ and things happen fairly quickly, so heavy rainfall is always a concern.”